The supply and demand in the refined lead market both declined, with some downstream enterprises entering the Qingming Festival holiday early. [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures Market:

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 17,465 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward after opening, with shorts increasing their positions, touched a low of 17,370 yuan/mt, then fluctuated rangebound around 17,400 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 17,375 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.20%. Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,013/mt, fluctuated rangebound during the Asian session, entered the European session, touched a high of $2,013/mt, then fluctuated downward, touched a low of $2,013/mt, and finally closed at $2,015.5/mt, up $2.5/mt, an increase of 0.12%.

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Macro Aspect: As tariffs disrupt the global economy, Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US economic recession from 20% to 35%. In addition, Goldman Sachs expects the US Fed and the European Central Bank to cut interest rates three times, higher than the previously expected two times. Fed Chairman Powell and other Fed policymakers' speeches this week may also provide clues on US interest rate trends.

Spot Fundamentals :

In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at a premium of 20-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2504 contract; in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, JCC and Jinde lead were quoted at parity against the SHFE lead 2504 contract. SHFE lead fluctuated downward, but due to the firm scrap price, cost support played a role, and SHFE lead stabilized. Suppliers quoted according to the market, some primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site were quoted firmly, mostly at a small premium (against the SMM 1# lead average price), while secondary lead smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost factors, the discount of secondary refined lead narrowed significantly, quoted at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM 1# lead price, a few even quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing, and spot order market transactions were sluggish.

Inventory Aspect: As of March 31, LME lead inventory increased by 725 mt to 231,925 mt; as of March 31, SMM lead ingot social inventory in five regions totaled 72,500 mt, an increase of over 600 mt compared to March 24; an increase of 3,300 mt compared to March 27.

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Today's Lead Price Forecast:

Recently, the lead market has shown weak supply and demand—on the supply side, constrained by routine maintenance and difficulties in scrap recycling, the operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead enterprises both declined; on the demand side, due to the lead-acid battery industry entering the traditional off-season, downstream enterprises generally adopted cautious production strategies, some enterprises implemented production cuts or entered the Qingming Festival holiday early. After last week's surge, lead prices fluctuated downward, leading to low purchase willingness among downstream enterprises, slowing long-term contract purchase pace, and a significant contraction in spot procurement volume. Affected by this, suppliers accelerated the transfer of in-plant lead ingots to social warehouses, pushing social inventory to rebound to over 70,000 mt. In addition, as April approaches, market focus shifts to the SHFE lead 2504 contract delivery, and attention should still be paid to the transfer of delivery brand cargoes to warehouses.